Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
